Quarter Volley

The way this season has gone thus far, I never thought I’d be disappointed in a draw at New England, but I am. For about an hour last night, DC United was dominant offensively. They moved like a well-oiled machine and, if not for Matt Reis standing on his proverbial head, would have scored four or five goals. I wasn’t even really that worried when New England scored its first goal, not because of the confidence I have in this team this season, but because of the confidence they’d given me that game. I was convinced the three points were coming.

Of course I was wrong. Some of the problems that United have faced all year reared their ugly heads once more. Zach Wells’ command of the penalty area was improved, but not where it needs to be. Bryan Namoff’s failed clearance on the near goal at the end of the first half almost erased United’s halftime advantage. Fred failed twice to clear the ball on Adam Cristman’s goal to cut the deficit to one, and Namoff kept Cristman onside, and he must’ve known it too as he was the only deep defender not running with his arm up. I can’t fault Wells for the first goal, as he was essentially hung out to dry by poor defending, but how much of the second goal was his fault? It looks like he misjudged the cross, starting to come out from the goal and then making for the far post. It’s unclear whether he would’ve been able to stop the first headed ball from Jeff Larentowicz, who abused Santino Quaranta to put it back across to Kheli Dube, who ran past not one, but two DC United players who barely breathed on him to find himself unmarked to to level the match. I don’t expect this team to be perfect, but these little mental errors or mistakes in execution showed up at the wrong time and cost the team two points.

It wasn’t all bad. DC United became only the second team to score more than one goal on the Revs at home through fluid and dangerous attacking that had me on the edge of my seat. It felt like every time United got within 30 yards of the goal they were getting a shot off that would test Reis. Luciano Emilio looked as alive as he has all season, dribbling defenders and making space to get off shots, and he was in the right place at the right time to score the initial goal. New England looked like it had given up as Fred slammed home the third effort of a brief assault on the Revs goal, as the defenders seemingly forgot he was there and watched as the ball flew across the line to extend the advantage to two. Domenic Mediate, playing centrally in the back, looked fairly comfortable for someone I thought was a wide midfielder. Again, Wells was better, but not as good as he needs to be.

There were pluses and minuses to come out of this match, but after watching that performance I feel a little bit better about the team than I did after the 2nd Toronto match. I didn’t expect the draw, but I got it, and if you told me 24 hours ago that I’d have it I would’ve taken it. But now I’m a little disappointed. And that by itself, that I’m disappointed that we only took one point away from New England on the road, is a good sign.

The Primer is back after a bit of an absence. We’re dropping in just in time for the third DC United match in nine days, a difficult stretch to be sure. Tonight the team travels to face New England, a team that has won three in a row and is 6-1-1 with a +9 goal differential in all matches not against the Chicago Fire.

I said on Monday that DC United need four points from the next three matches else we should be looking for a new coach very soon. I think a 1-1-1 record over the next three (@NE, Hou, @Chi) would be a big step in the right direction for this team, but the question is as to from where three of those four points will come. Do I expect DC to beat New England on the road? Not the way this team has played this year. To be frank, I’m hoping this is the draw.

The Revs are a tough nut to crack for the most part. Excepting the 4-0 and 3-0 scorelines in the two matches against Chicago, New England has not allowed more than one goal in a contest to anyone. In fact, they’ve only allowed four goals in their other 8 non-Chicago matches. That isn’t to say that Chicago’s the only team that can beat them, but it’s hard to weigh what a 4-0 or 3-0 loss tells me about a team, especially when they played with 10 men for 83 minutes of one of those losses. An early New England goal might just spell doom for United, and I’ll be chewing my fingernails from goal to whistle if United scores first.

I’d be more than happy to split the points tonight. I don’t care who starts at forward or on the flanks, or how many defenders we utilize. Just find a way. It won’t be easy, but find a way.

There isn’t much to speak of this week for the Local Soccer Roundup.

Freedom 3 - 0 Fredericksburg
A Jennifer Parsons hat trick was more than enough to propel the Freedom to a 3-0 away victory over the Fredericksburg Lady Gunners. Scoring machine Ali Andrzejewski left the match on 33′ for reasons that are unknown to me at this time, but the Freedom didn’t miss a beat, as 2 of the 3 Parsons goals came after Andrzejewski’s departure.

Royals 0 - 2 Reading
The Reading Rage scored one goal in each half to beat the Northern Virginia Royals 2-0 on Saturday night at Fairfax High School. The Royals (1-0-3) have dropped three straight since opening their season with a victory. They get a second shot at the Rage this Saturday on the road.

Monarchs 2 - 1 Wilmington
Real Maryland earned their second consecutive win and third on the season Saturday night at the Maryland Soccerplex, beating the Wilmington Hammerheads 2-1. An 88th minute penalty converted by Nilson Perez proved the difference, after a Dennis Alas goal on 42′ leveled the match at 1-1.

It was palpable. To the left and right I could hear it and feel it. Anyone who cared about DC United in any form reacted the same way when Danny Dichio scored his second goal of the match to quickly counter Gonzalo Peralta’s first MLS goal and give Toronto FC back the lead at 2-1. Heads were in hands. Eyes were covered. “Oh no. Not again” was the sentiment. But something funny happened on the way to Tom Soehn’s firing. DC United showed guts. They showed balls. They fought back.

I don’t know what happened in the locker room at halftime. I don’t know what Tom Soehn said, what the players said, or whether chairs were thrown and tables were turned over. I don’t care, to be honest. All that matters is that DC United fell behind twice and came back each time to tie the contest before scoring a third goal to take the lead and hold on for all three points. It was a glimmer of hope among the many dark nights thus far this season, but it was just that… a glimmer.

I don’t want to be the proverbial turd in the punch bowl, but a reality check is necessary for anyone who might think that this fixes all our ills. First of all, we needed to come from behind to beat a team that we beat 4-1 the first time around at home. Zach Wells stopped exactly one of the three shots on goal he faced all night. And then there’s the little fact that all three of our wins this season have come at home against Toronto FC and Real Salt Lake, who have as many MLS playoff appearances between them as my coed rec team does.

There’s a long way to go for this team in a few ways: up the league table, and until the end of the season to name two. But if this team doesn’t build upon this win and get at least four points from their next three matches (@NE, Hou, @Chi), it will be a short time until we’re looking for a new coach.

Freedom 2 - 0 Fort Collins Force
Freedom 3 - 0 Real Colorado Cougars
The Washington Freedom were victorious in two exhibition matches last week. The first was a 2-0 victory over the Fort Collins Force on Thursday, and the second, a 3-0 victory over Real Colorado, came on Friday. The next match that counts for the Freedom is Saturday May 24 at the Fredericksburg Lady Gunners.

Royals 1 - 3 Vermont Voltage
The Royals fell behind 1-0 to Vermont on 32 minutes but found themselves level just two minutes later by way of a Grady Renfrow goal. Five minutes into the second half, Vermont’s Matthew Stedman tallied to give Vermont a 2-1 lead, and he scored again seven minutes later to put the game out of reach.

Majestics 1 - 7 Boston Renegades
A Jessie Deegan goal in the 36th minute was the only bright spot for the Majestics on Saturday, as they allowed seven goals on 12 Boston Renegades shots to lose 7-1. Boston forward Ashlee Pistorius scored four of the seven goals and also assisted on a goal.

Real Maryland Monarchs 3 - 2 Cleveland City Stars
USL2 side Real Maryland earned their second franchise victory on Saturday at Maryland SoccerPlex, defeating Cleveland and avenging a 4-0 loss just a week before. Real Maryland found themselves down 2-0 after just 16 minutes, but a Dennis Alas brace separated by a Nilson Perez goal lifted the Monarchs to victory.

Alright… as promised, here’s the defense and goalkeeping analysis. Click to enlarge. You know the drill. All the data is here, sorted alphabetically.

It’s the same as before, only it’s goals by opponents, shots by opponents… you know the deal. You can basically say that the Chicago defense has faced 87 shots, for instance, or that the Houston defense has faced 49 shots on goal. It gets tricky with the fouls committed as you have to read it literally as fouls committed by the opposition and fouls suffered by the opposition. So from that data, I got this…

Like on Tuesday, it’s sorted by PPG. Columbus, Chicago, and New York are the only teams in the league that are allowing less than a point a match. Not coincidentally, those are the only 1-loss teams in the league. In addition to surrendering only .57 points per match, Chicago’s allowing a paltry .43 goals per game, as well as virtually destroying the competition in shots that are goals, and shots on goal that are goals (aka: reverse of goalkeeper save percentage). More on Chicago in a moment.

There isn’t much of a correlation between allowing shots and winning. Columbus allows the most shots per game in the league but they’re at the top of the overall table. Colorado is allowing less than 10 shots per game, and they’re near the bottom of league in points per game surrendered.

If a team is allowing 20% of their SOG to be goals, that means that they have a save percentage of 80. Los Angeles is scoring goals, but allowing them too. Their %SOG=G is 38.46%, meaning the save percentage of their goalkeepers is slightly higher than 60%. Not good. Also not good is that the LA number is only second worst in the league. The worst? DC United. I’m talking to you, Mr. Wells.

Look at the rankings for United. 12th in goals per game, 12th in shots that are goals, and dead last in what amounts to save percentage. Statistically speaking, if you want a goat you can look to the backline in part, but mostly at Zach Wells. Yeah, a goal is not always the goalkeeper’s fault, but for the most part if it’s on frame you’d better be saving it. Holy crap. I can’t even say anything else about this. I felt like he had been performing at a level that’s sub-standard at the least, but these numbers absolutely floored me.

Now, back to Chicago, The hated Fire, our postseason nemesis. Look at that. 1st in goals allowed, shots that are goals, and shots on goal that are goals. Is there any question that defensively, and especially between the posts, they’re unbelievable? I mean, in terms of percentage numbers, the Fire %SOG=G number is 7.89%. Second to them? Houston at 20.41%. That’s a difference of nearly 13 percentage points! Speaking of Houston, their numbers should be skewed due to Tony Caig replacing Pat Onstad, but they still have a high save percentage… except they’re allowing the highest percentage of shots on goal. The next closest team is Chivas by nearly 10% points. Not good for a young and inexperienced keeper.

I’m still staggered by the DC United numbers, so I’ll bring this to a close. Well, at least until later in the season when I want to look at how teams have improved and worsened and why. This feature will be back sometime over the summer.

Something you may not know about me is that I love stats as pertains to sports. I recognize that a lot of stats don’t mean anything, but they’re always going to be fun to examine. A recent email exchange with another soccer fan has lead me to a little team-by-team MLS statistical analysis. Here’s the set of data I was working with (click to enlarge):

In case there are any questions, that’s an alphabetical listing of each team in the league and their numbers from left to right: games, goals, shots, shots on goal, fouls committed, fouls suffered, and then their record.

So I took that data and went a few steps forward:

This is sorted by the right most column, points per game. From left to right it’s goals per game, shots per game, percentage of shots on goal, percentage of shots that are goals, percentage of shots on goal that are goals, overall shots differential, and fouls suffered differential.

There are a few numbers that jump out. First of all, freaking Columbus is first in the league in points per game? Next, from the Department of The Obvious, for the most part it looks as though scoring goals will get you points. Sure, Colorado and RSL are the only other teams averaging over 1.5 goals per game and they’re not very high in the pecking order, but for the most part the PPG and GPG trend the same… until you look at the Galaxy, who are tied with Columbus for the league lead in GPG but are tied for 9th in PPG. I guess they need to shore up the defense. Also rather obvious, the team with the lowest GPG has the lowest PPG.

Moving on, you don’t necessarily have to shoot the ball the most to earn results. Columbus lead the league in SPG, but teams 2 through 5 (RSL, LA, Houston, and Chivas respectively) in that statistic are all in the bottom half of the league in PPG. Nobody averages less than 10 shots per game, and the teams tied for the lowest SPG (Toronto and FC Dallas) are 4th and 8th in terms of points per game.

The most efficient team in terms of shots that are goals is Chicago. This is noteworthy because they’re also 2nd in percentage of shots on goal, and 3rd in both goals per game and shots on goal that are goals, as well as 2nd in points per game. But they’ve done all of this while shooting 10.6 times per game, good for 12 in the league out of 14 teams. This chart is representative of the rankings of each team in the statistical categories:

Not surprisingly, San Jose is at or near the bottom in every category. I added the fouls committed and fouls suffered categories hoping that their might be some fun correlation between committing fouls and losing and suffering them and winning. What I found instead is that somehow San Jose has suffered the fewest number of fouls in the league and has committed the second lowest. Additionally, Toronto has committed the fewest, and suffered the third fewest, yet those teams are virtually at opposite ends of the table in terms of PPG. The Galaxy are rated 6th or better in the goals and shooting categories, and that makes their defense look that much worse when you see their position in the standings. Houston is shooting the ball a lot, 4th overall in shots per game, and they’re out-shooting their opponents at a ratio that’s 3rd best in the league, yet they can’t score. Maybe it’s time for the team to go through some drills to improve their shooting accuracy, as they’re even 2nd worst in terms of beating the keeper when they get it on frame.

The team I haven’t mentioned so far, as I’m sure you’ve realized, is DC United. I expected them to be worse in terms of shots per game than 8th, as it seems like they hardly ever shoot the ball. When I saw that they were ranked where they are, I figured they were maybe shooting but just not getting it on frame, but that turned out not to be the case as they’re ranked 6th in getting their shots on goal. Yeah, they’re 10th both in scoring anytime they shoot, and scoring when they get it on frame, but those numbers aren’t the stuff that makes a team 12th in PPG. So what is it that’s the problem for United? In what ways are the Fire succeeding doing more than just being more efficient in their shooting? The answers will likely come to light a little later this week when we look at the defense and goalkeeping.

Every Monday/Tuesday I’m going to run the weekly roundup of local soccer, primarily focused on the semi-pro happenings in the area. Once these teams start hosting games that I can attend you’ll be seeing more in-depth posts on those games.

US WNT 6 - 0 Canada
Yeah, it wasn’t local in the sense that it was the National team, but it was at local because it was played at RFK Stadium. Natasha Kai’s hat trick as well as single goals by Carli Lloyd, Leslie Osborne and Lindsay Tarpley were more than enough for the US to dispatch with Canada. Kai’s hat trick came over a 21 minute span, with goals in the 54th, 60th, and 75th minute.

Freedom 3 - 1 Long Island Lady Rough Riders
Opening the defense of their 2007 W-League title on the road, the Washington Freedom defeated Long Island behind a Christie Welsh brace and a single goal by Sarah Huffman. Welsh’s first strike came on 6 minutes to give the Freedom a 1-0 lead which they held at halftime. Long Island’s goal did not come until the 80th minute. The Freedom open the season with 4 road games, not playing at home until June 1st. Next up is a May 15th date at the Fort Collins Force.

Royals 1 - 0 Hampton Roads Piranhas
The Northern Virginia Royals opened their season with a 1-0 victory over defending regular season champions Hampton Roads at their home field at Virginia Wesleyan College (what happened to the Hampton Roads Soccerplex?). The lone goal of the match came in the 2nd minute of 2nd half stoppage, courtesy of Royals forward David Atkinson. The Royals play Thursday 5/15 at the Fredericksburg Gunners before the hope opener at Fairfax High School against the Vermont Voltage on 5/17

Whew.

I’m incredulous.

This morning, it was disclosed that Luciano Emilio has been made, for all intents and purposes, a DP for the season. Usually I defend the Front Office until the moves they make prove to be errors, even if they really look like errors at the time. I can’t wait on this one.

If DC United had decided to make Luci a DP over the winter it would’ve been difficult to argue against them. He’d just won the Golden Boot and the MVP, and the team had just won the Supporters’ Shield. I would’ve supported the move. However, making the move now, 6 matches into the season with the team having a 2-0-4 record and Emilio having garnered just a goal and an assist, doesn’t make sense to me. Why are we rewarding him now for what he did last season when he’s started so poorly this season. He’s having trouble holding the ball. Well, he’s having trouble staying on his feet long enough to hold the ball, and it’s clear that he isn’t scoring. Looking ahead, this stands out to me as a big deal:

His original contract remains intact, but at some point this year, one of three things must occur: United must sign him to a new deal, trade him or sell him abroad.

Okay, so let’s say Emilio recovers and scores oh… 15 goals over the course of the season. After taking a statistical step back of 5 goals from the 2007 to 2008 seasons, the team would be justified in offering Emilio a new contract at less than what he makes now, and at less than DP money (see: Twellman, Taylor and his 16 goals for non DP money), but would Emilio accept that money now that he’s making a DP salary? I say no. If the club wants to keep him, they’re probably going to have to give him at least a minor raise. So then what happens? Emilio hasn’t earned the raise, so he tries his hand elsewhere, and the team is back to having a DP slot available. So why even let Emilio take up the DP slot to begin with if it’s going to end up being free at the end of the year? Sure, the club probably wasn’t going to go out and use the slot on a new player over the course of the year anyway, but now we certainly don’t have the option. And really, when’s the last time a professional athlete in any sport got the money and then ratcheted up their performance?

I hope Luci proves me wrong here, but for the time being I can’t defend this move. Not one bit.